13 October 2016

fun reading

The NWS discussion has many "interesting" notes today. (They use the word "interesting" often when "dangerous" or "volatile" are equally good choices.)

  • First to note is Typhoon Songda - its remnants will reach the USA on Saturday. 
  • A quick wound-up low will bring back memories of its big winds as they visit Astoria (ECMWF model) or Victoria (GFS). If you live near Astoria, that's an important distinction!! 
  • The words "180-200kt jet" are also in here - that's a huge amount of wind up high that is potentially available for delivery at lower levels, in the 'proper' conditions. 
  • Oh yes, they also describe the ECMWF as "sticking to its guns", meaning that its solution has been consistent while others have jumped about. It's hard to pin down such an unstable event.
So: typhoon remnants, really fast jet stream, predicted Low pressure to get winds going, and the most consistently correct model in the world says it will make landfall as close to our home as possible. 

Perhaps those south winds will deliver our firewood this year? Not entirely likely - yet several large trees sit on the 800-foot crest of our hill, and our driveway sits about 30' below and north of that crest. Maybe I'll park the Fiat somewhere else on Saturday..

geek alert!

youtube shot (after 25 seconds)
accuweather wind forecast 10/15, model unknown

weather channel - also going GFS and barely mentioning the risk that ECMWF track suggests!
screen shot: ECMWF is scenario #2. Skill tests always put ECMWF and UKMET at the top, GFS a clear tier lower-  but tropical systems are notoriously challenging to all models esp. with a 160+ jet stream!

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