Friday, November 10, 2017

November being itself

According to the 30-year normals in the PRISM database, November is our wettest month with over 10½ inches on average. We're doing just fine in that regard, ten days in - and much more is coming soon!

Much of the coming week's precipitation is coming with cool air, therefore snow in the mountains will measure several feet by Thanksgiving. Ski areas will rejoice, and skiers as well.

Since we're over 3½" already and this forecast graphic for the next seven days is for ~six additional inches, it appears that November will be an average damp month at the very least. December and January average over nine inches each so the wet season has just begun.. again.

The yard is quite covered in maple leaves, but the trees are not done dropping their loads. The vine maple is still holding on but the best colors have now passed. The prettiest days of autumn are passed, and the clouds are definitely in charge.

Friday, November 3, 2017

return of the varied thrush

Now that leaves are on the ground that need flipping over, the varied thrush have returned! That didn't take long.. I wonder where they hang out when leaves are staying put?

chance of ..snow!

We've now dropped into the mid-30s at night, and soon our clocks fall back an hour. No daylight to save any more so why not - I'd still prefer a half-hour step and lock it down. I'm funny like that.

Areas of NW Washington got some snow this morning! Not much in general but the traditional perfect-storm pattern has set up with cold air and a pinch of over-water moisture fetch. /Charts and details here./  Sunday night shows our best chance at 800' in SW Washington, we'll see how that goes.

I've often seen snow around Thanksgiving in my lifetime, but closer to Halloween? Not often.

Thursday, October 26, 2017


Today looked like the best day to burn some yard debris, as the east wind was forecast to appear soon after. However the northeast wind developed quickly and strongly compared to forecasts so we shall wait a bit. Considering how hard it is to get much wind here for anything but east-west flow the chart looks impressive - but the direction generally states it was from the east, so some serious swirling was going on. Not ideal for an outdoor fire, regardless of how wet we've been!

Winds are now forecast to be weak on Saturday.. we shall see about that!

Monday, October 23, 2017

My Wettest Days!

After the past few damp days I decided to wander into the virtual NWS archives in Portland. Sure enough, several days of up to 2½ inches have happened there in my lifetime - but nothing in the 3-5 inch category there.

Considering that Thursday was also a top-ten rainfall day (#9 as of now), that's mighty impressive. A year or two ago I was shocked by 10 inches in a single week (November 2015) - now I can add eight-plus inches in a 4-day span to that list of amazing rainfall.

Several interesting points about atmospheric rivers to be seen. Often times the warm front would dump a bunch, move just north of my location then swing south again - so a gap of a day or two between large numbers. Either that or a double river set up from two different dead typhoons?

The tints provide the hint. October 1994 had three events within six days (blue), and our double whammy came on the 19th and 21st this past week. That one was in fact two separate events, so it happens.

Note also the tan events from 1996, which was an amazingly wet year around here. Toss in Nov 11 '95 if you wish.

Another interesting point is that nearly every one of these is a 'recent' event. The earliest are 1960, 1969 and 1973 - then nothing until 1984.

So whatever it may mean.. here it is!

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Not something we see often..

An overnight forecast of 2-3 inches. Wow!

Update.. Saturday total rain 4.8", October total including Sunday's half inch is over 10. Not the 20.2" of last year but still far beyond the 'normal' 5.5 inches!

Monday, October 16, 2017

wet week ahead!

The upcoming week has a full load of rainfall! The image shows the total 7-day amount that's currently forecast, and the moisture plume showing on the IR satellite image confirms that someone is going to get very wet. Even four inches is enough to put us positive for October's total amount, so we needn't fear for our well running dry.

The past few days have been quite nice, with temperatures now reaching the 30s - with just under 11 hours of daylight now, that's no surprise. I rebuilt the wood 'shed' with our largest tarp for a roof/wall and the remaining fiberglass from the previous shed for bonus protection on top. If the wind doesn't get out of hand that should do for a while.

Our wood is going faster than I expected, so a refill in December will need to happen. Hopefully by then our income will be reinforced in one of several ways. We still await word on my wife's Social Security payments that were suspended for reasons not entirely clear, but I'm seeking a part-time job to cover that missing income. We'll get through this spell but retirement will be suspended for a while. It would take a while to qualify for SoSec myself, as I removed myself from the pool very early to enter Federal service. A few years of part-timing will reduce our debts substantially.

*updates - 
  • 10/19 so far so 'good', as yesterday ended with about 2¼ inches of rain. The weekend promises as least two more inches, so mark up another month of above-average precipitation - we've sure had a lot of those in Oct-May months!
  • 10/20 another half-inch, about three more inches now expected beginning early Saturday.
  • 10/21 nearly 5 inches, and 3/4 more Sunday!