wow

NRCS basin snowpack measurements - effect of the 2019 Big Chill!

yes more snow

Another inch came down this morning, putting the month at just under 16 inches of snowfall. All of this year's snow came in February - too early to say that generally for the season though, as early March is just two days away! I see that Seattle last had a high near normal on 2/4, and many highs this month were are or below the average low temperature. Oof.

This perpetual Yukon low will wither away to drier weather for early March - but no heat wave, not even seasonal for a while. Here is March 8th forecasts from GFS, ECMWF and CMC models, all showing teal-tint 540MB heights are about as good as we can expect. Not Arctic certainly, but definitely not an early sping! And considering the mild Oct-Jan season, it feels like we got a bonus season this year.

nonstop

The turn to winter continues.

After a mild Nov-Jan span lulled us into complacency, the February parade of cool Yukon air has now sat upon (or very near) us for three weeks now. Piles of shoveled snow remain from the storms that began on the 8th and peaked on the 11th, though the unshoveled snow had finally melted off our yard, deck and driveway in the past few days.

And now this. Almost three inches fell this afternoon as I came home from work. The wet flakes in Longview proper became a slick inch on the roads above 450 feet.

The forecast this morning was for several snowy nights with no real accumulation, followed by rainy days that would essentially rinse it all away. That's now looking pretty rare on this evening's chart above! The Sunday/Monday event could leave four inches, though w.Underground says 5-8" is feasible. They were pretty close with the earlier storm, though they stayed cool as the slow melt removed our saucer-runs on the driveway.

And this time?  Stay tuned!

regional snowpack improvement

One of the very good effects of the recent snow/slush events is the west-side snowpack. This chart was solid-gold in the Cascades for the entire season - but not any more! While still below average, the map at right shows the improvement from gold to yellow. More storms are heading toward us and below-normal temperatures remain, so the good news should continue. A few more basins could be turning green in the near future!

The Sierra have received feet of snow during this time, and numbers down there have reached 150% and more - good news for them too after several bleak years. Not as much fun for the PGA and their California/Arizona events, but they will manage. Tournament payouts do not seem to decrease just because people got a bit wet and chilly, so complaints are not reaching me about this.

yep it snowed in February

As I type we're at 11 inches and counting. We are right on the forecast margin here, as Longview is wet and most radar echoes are alternately painted white or green at our location. This is part of a warm front that may lift far enough north to switch us to rain - or maybe not. Then it swings back down again as snow. That part is pretty likely.

This cool retirement home is a fun place in winter, but I did accept a part-time job down below; it's awkward to call out as unavailable/snowed in.  Had the Fiat not been stuck on our driveway perhaps the Explorer would be tractioned up and ready to take me down the hill. Ah well - one does what one must.

An interesting side note:

February is the big-snow month here, at least since we got here. I'm much more accustomed to December as the big-snow month, as it was in 1968 and 2008 - but the top snow measurements here have been the past three Febs! Most of these values are consecutive-day measurements which makes it look more impressive - but every day with 5" or more has been in month #2.

Curious.

freaky February

After a rather dry and very mild early winter, this El Niño is turning the tables.

The eastern USA got hammered with a storm as brutal as any in 20 years, with subzero readings and nasty wind chills all over the region. That mutated into a spectacular warmup that moved the bitter air to the Yukon - and that air has decided to come south.

This past week we had 1/2 inch of snow, and it hasn't gone anywhere except under direct sunlight. And the forecast has wavered a few times, but today it looks like this -

The weather service forecast at top would give us a range of 2-5 inches through the weekend, and clearly WxUnderground goes a bit above and beyond. At this point that extra half-cord of wood I bought seems like a genius move, but two weeks ago it seemed merely an exercise in giving me exercise as I stacked it wherever I could find a spot. 

We'll see how this works out a week from now. It's a real departure from the El Niño blueprint, which tends to start as a normal winter before going mild and dry later on.