cancel that..

After two inches of rain in two days, and another inch coming in the next 36 hours, October will be above average with four days to go. It's really unlikely that we will get to ten inches.. but I'm done with strong expectations about the fall rainy season!

a dry October?

Here are the amounts we've received in October 2016-7-8 

(PRISM = 30-year 'normal')

We've had two huge Octobers recently, and those will really mess with the next 30-year average - but this year we're about half of normal. Another inch or more is forecast to get us closer to normal (and clearly we can get a bunch of rain in an October week!) but we won't come close to the last two values. Septembers had also been well above normal until this year.

The 30-year values are derived from local observations and then biased by the PRISM model to estimate areas between the points based on location and elevation. Perhaps that logic needs to be examined for future estimates, especially in the autumn?