freaky February

After a rather dry and very mild early winter, this El Niño is turning the tables.

The eastern USA got hammered with a storm as brutal as any in 20 years, with subzero readings and nasty wind chills all over the region. That mutated into a spectacular warmup that moved the bitter air to the Yukon - and that air has decided to come south.

This past week we had 1/2 inch of snow, and it hasn't gone anywhere except under direct sunlight. And the forecast has wavered a few times, but today it looks like this -

The weather service forecast at top would give us a range of 2-5 inches through the weekend, and clearly WxUnderground goes a bit above and beyond. At this point that extra half-cord of wood I bought seems like a genius move, but two weeks ago it seemed merely an exercise in giving me exercise as I stacked it wherever I could find a spot. 

We'll see how this works out a week from now. It's a real departure from the El Niño blueprint, which tends to start as a normal winter before going mild and dry later on.

the missing winter recap

Our final snow of the year arrived the morning after Easter Sunday. A good inch stuck to our deck by mid-morning before showers decreased and the early-April sun did its work. By afternoon it was a memory, other than the small slush-piles near car windshields.

We ended this season at just over 23″ of snow on our deck, so that was about half of our total from last year. The snowfall in 2015-16 lulled us to sleep (about 5 inches total) but now we know that was a sub-par year. We made an excellent play-hill of our driveway after our all-time max of about 15 inches covered the ground on 24 February - nice memories and a few aches that soon passed.

As to rainfall, another plus season is in the books. Oct-Mar rainfall was about 3" below the full-year total we should receive, and counting mid-Oct to mid-Apr we were 3" above our expected 63.7 inches. May was absurdly dry with only 0.10" but this weekend we added about an inch - so all will be well and the sprinkler can take a break.

solstice

Winter has officially begun..
and an 'interesting' forecast comes with it!

A dry first half of December moistened up impressively this past week. It will not be enough to reach average, especially with more cold weather limiting the moisture to slick but not deep moisture. Driving around Christmas could be a problem.. we shall see soon enough.

first frost at last

After two months of rain (10¼" and nearly 13"), December is going dry for a week or more. As I've mentioned our location is wettest in November - but December should still end up at 9.4 inches, so a dry 7-10 days will need to be made up later.

On the other hand, clearer skies and colder nights will finally arrive. We're still awaiting our first frost, though we've been in the mid-30s several times. One of the next few nights should be frosty. That's pretty late for around here, but clearing (or an early arctic airmass) is needed to get us to freezing. I always thought of Halloween as Portland's first chance of frost, so by that measure we're a month behind.

One catch though: fog. 

We were foggy all day here it seems, with a high of about 40°. South of Longview skies were mostly clear where the Columbia Gorge winds scoured things out. I had hoped we would be above the fog but that didn't work today; however the dry week is young! We're showing just under 35° at 8:20, but I am watching the clouds swiftly breeze across the full-ish moon. The photo here is exposed just right for the moon in cloud, so the top part is in the clear!

If the sky seals up we could skip the frost again tonight. Some time in the next few days though, the north or east wind will dry things out enough - and frost will happen.

My Wettest Days!

After the past few damp days I decided to wander into the virtual NWS archives in Portland. Sure enough, several days of up to 2½ inches have happened there in my lifetime - but nothing in the 3-5 inch category there.

Considering that Thursday was also a top-ten rainfall day (#9 as of now), that's mighty impressive. A year or two ago I was shocked by 10 inches in a single week (November 2015) - now I can add eight-plus inches in a 4-day span to that list of amazing rainfall.

Several interesting points about atmospheric rivers to be seen. Often times the warm front would dump a bunch, move just north of my location then swing south again - so a gap of a day or two between large numbers. Either that or a double river set up from two different dead typhoons?

The tints provide the hint. October 1994 had three events within six days (blue), and our double whammy came on the 19th and 21st this past week. That one was in fact two separate events, so it happens.

Note also the tan events from 1996, which was an amazingly wet year around here. Toss in Nov 11 '95 if you wish.

Another interesting point is that nearly every one of these is a 'recent' event. The earliest are 1960, 1969 and 1973 - then nothing until 1984.

So whatever it may mean.. here it is!

fire and shadow

Yes, a nest of Balrogs has taken over the Pacific NW region.

No? Guess it's another 'heat snap' then. 

Add heat, season with wildfire smoke and simmer. Live with it until you snap.

fires in north-central BC + NNW winds = yuk (yellow tint mine)

This heat was well advertised and anticipated. Models were forecasting 110°, which has never happened this side of a Medford-TheDalles line! The PDX weather folk explained how the 850hPa temperatures occasionally go wild in the models despite other pressure levels appearing typical for a midsummer blast. In this case the 28° Celsius at 850 hasn't happened (yet?) but the arrival of smoke from British Columbia has likely capped the intensity of the insolation.

Salem did measure 25°C (5am reading, yellow highlight) so we are capable of record-setting temperatures, and the Portland airport has set two new daily records. If the smoke clears a bit perhaps the elusive 108° could be achieved.. but forecasts are trending down as the smoke settles in for a few days.

Here on the hill-top we have hit the mid-90s the past two days, not comfortable but not 103 either! The smoky blanket could make tonight pretty miserable though. Portland's thermal blanket kept summertime lows in the mid-upper 60s at times, and we have not missed those nights in the least. However, last night dropped only to 68.7° - warmer than KPDX! - and we may see worse tonight. By late Friday the marine push should arrive, but it is expected to be a weak one that knocks us to the lower 80s by Monday. No rain or serious clouds expected, though an outside chance of thunder as the heat breaks over the weekend.
We shall see..

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3Aug: PDX stopped at 105° as of 7PM. We again bottomed out around 67°, warmer than Portland - I guess we are closer to 850MB than they are! According to this site, not much though - and another site suggests we're at 985hPa. Fun facts!

not so hot

Our first heat waves are in the books, and they were pleasantly brief and ended with strong west winds that kept the house cool. As noted before the first one ended with thunder and a lot of rain; nothing so dramatic this time.

Today was an excellent day: we awoke to morning clouds that burned away just before 10AM. Most of the day from noon to 6PM was low 70s but a quick half-hour pushed the high to 79°. A couple of hours later the west wind came in a rush, and at 7:45 we are in the mid-50s!

An excellent day to get work done, relax, and work a little more. A few well-placed fans and the house cools quickly. The next several days will be in the 60s so that was just enough fun for now.

I've pressure-washed our deck - again - so if tomorrow is the last Warm Day we can get it stained. I washed it thoroughly last fall but timing was off for a staining, so it endured the harshest winter I'd ever seen!

The day was also excellent thanks to my encounter with three deer in our yard. They were distracted by a neighbor's chain saw so I got to the edge of the deck just before they romped over to the edge of our yard nearest to the deck, about 20 feet away. I clucked softly and they looked me over, but preferred my sound to the ones next door. I took a 1-minute video and here's a snip from it. The one on the right is still watching for the chain-saw!

first mowing of '17

A single beautiful day broke through the clouds today, and we reached 65° for the first time. Portland had not hit 65 before today either, which broke a long-standing record for the latest to reach that temperature! I did not get a chance to relax thoroughly in it, but I did get to sit on our large, loud mower and get the level areas mowed. The tires slipped when attempting a hill but I managed it once I learned to lean over the slipping wheel. It's no surprise I would slip, as over half the lawn is in fact moss.. but in the end the place looks much better.

I hate using my cell-phone camera, but it did a decent job of the late-day sun on our local volcano. No blooms on this particular rhododendron, but others are beginning to blush.

And now, back into the showers. April will probably reach its normal amount of rain, like every month except January.

damp days

Numerous sites around us have already reached their water-year totals for 2017. Put another way, if it stops raining now we would still be above normal in September! Our site agrees with this as we are 3" above our computed Oct-Sep average right now, and another inch should fall through tomorrow. Quite amazing, and difficult to bear - even for the Pacific NW this has been an exceptionally cloudy stretch of months.

If you're seeking geekier details with charts and stats, the CliffMass blog is where you should be!

Our season has turned, however, with crocus daffodils and our first hummingbird sighting. The days are longer, though still wet and grey. You can watch it rain longer with the extra daylight though, and no doubt the rain-drops are a bit warmer.

 This too shall pass!

4/20 update:
from fox12 weather 'blog,  speaking for Portland:
"WE’VE NEVER GONE THIS FAR INTO THE SPRING SEASON WITHOUT HITTING 65 DEGREES."
Ouch/brr..

fade to green

Other than a bit in the most secluded of spots, the snow is gone. Temps in the 40s are the norm again! That was quite the experience, nice to know new things can still happen as I approach my sixtieth birthday. And of course - our 4wd cruck is now ready to leave the shop, now that 4wd and high clearance is not needed. We still have February to get through, of course - but two major snowy spells in one season is really asking for a lot around here! One could consider the white days as two or even three spells, as they were separated by nearly a month and we hit 6" on the deck three separate times. Perhaps we'll go with snow in three different months as the unmet yardstick on this?

an end in sight?

The never-ending winter continues - for one more night?

Our most-recent six-inch 'base' came on 9-10 January, and it shows the same staying power as the other storms of this fall/winter season. We are now down to just below 5 inches - but prospects are looking greener in a few days. A warm storm with tropical memories will arrive tomorrow, adding some ice then rinsing with 2" or more of rain and 8000-foot snow levels!

Forecasts had continued to insist that warm air would roll ahead of the storm and bring an easy transition, promising 40-degree days and nights just around freezing. After three days of failing to perform the Winter Storm Warnings are up: Portland could get 1/3" of ice tomorrow, more on the east side.

I am not surprised but disappointed by this winter's model performance, with nights of cold rain when snow was predicted then 4" of snow the following night. Ah well, when one or two degrees makes such a large difference such things will happen. Strangely though, I cannot recall them happening very often in my lifetime of Portland winters - this has been a rare one!

Snow wins round 1

I was unable to get our 4wd truck prepared in time for our first snowy day. Just under 2" of snow showed up, and showers were white throughout the day. Our little Fiat 500 is not a snow vehicle but our Explorer SporTrac 4WD could be.. but the timing chain (perhaps?) is rattling badly so I'm updating the chain tensioners as it's a) possible for me to work on and b) could solve the problem. No guarantees though!

Portland had some snow showers but nothing recordable reached the ground. The snow broke our pop-up shelter that I had put over the truck to keep me dry, so by nightfall the truck was snugly in the garage instead.. so I can try to get it ready by Thursday's winter-mix of treacherous weather!

now that's a front!

Just short of Thanksgiving we have colder air coming. Nothing white at 800 feet, but plenty above 3000' for the next several days. The cold front has now passed, and a chilly trough awaits. Thick clouds and short days make for a great gloom settling in for a while.


Some gusty winds may visit as well, and definite storminess for the coast! It's really time to get our 4wd vehicle ready for use, as the small Fiat will be of no use in a few inches of snow. Not this week or this month, but who's to say what the winter will bring us?

The October rainfall total is..

Uncertain. 

Big though!

Strangely, our weather station reports both daily values and monthly accumulation - and they do not agree. October total shows 20.21" which is amazing, but the daily totals sum to 18.9 inches. Either number is over 3x the 30-year average of 5.5", so it was a very wet month! Octobers in this region are often beautiful for a week or two, but not this year; weekends in particular were stormy, and intervals between storms few.

I have seen previous months were off a bit but this month was so damp that the discrepancy was notable.

extreme, and modeling chaos

Mt. Hood forecast at the summit ±

Tonight

Snow showers before 11pm, then snow after 11pm. Low around 21. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a west southwest wind 34 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to 50 to 55 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. Wind chill values as low as -4. Windy, with a west southwest wind 50 to 60 mph decreasing to 38 to 48 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow showers. High near 23. Windy, with a southwest wind 26 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

100mph wind gusts, two feet of snow in 12 hours - o what fun!

Here is today's big-storm solution, similar to yesterday but low pressure not as low. And I'm hearing thunder as I type!

  

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Basic Stuff about Weather Models

So I clicked on the summit of Mt. Hood to get this forecast - elevation 11200 and change. 
Here's the forecast - well kinda? Forecast is at 9623' as shown at the bottom.
What's really happening at the summit?!?

Ah the simple joys of creating models to predict chaos. 
The complex world has to undergo some 'simplifying assumptions' for models to have any chance of simulating the weather in a timely manner. Step one is to break down the region to be forecast into a set of regular chunks: a grid. You could choose a myriad of methods to make a grid - clearly this image shows thar a large set of squares is doing the job. Each square is crammed with average data for that little bit of Earth. If you look at Oregon's high point in the real world you notice that just north of the summit it drops to 7000' in a hurry, courtesy of Coe and Eliot glaciers and their centuries of heavy grinding - hence this square includes both the summit and a steep plunge. Models can use hexagons or other grid shapes, but squares are nice in a few ways. For one they are made up of more squares, also you can make a square out of several of these squares. Either way it's still a square, and a model that runs squares can be calibrated run with different squares. Handy!

So why not make smaller squares then? Cut this square into its own 4x4 grid with more precise averages for each square, and re-run? Great idea in theory, but those theoretical weather forecasts will come out about eight hours after the storm has passed. These models are complicated, covering huge differences in conditions horizontally and vertically .. and it's changing over time, very rapidly at times and less so at other times. Superdupercomputers are now being delivered to the Weather Service for more complex modeling, but even so a grid-point that sits at 11200 and change won't appear soon.

Consider this still image of a fine set of thuunderstorms (taken in NE Portland, November 2009). At the top those clouds are congealing chunks of frozen water, which will get heavy and fall. The rain and hail at the cloud's base is clearly falling, and doing so with gusto! All this is in the still photo - now make a movie and see the cloud drift in one direction while it gets taller, more energy moves both up and down inside of it, and clear skies evaporate the new-fallen rain to make more vapor.  Now make a model - GO!

Remember how mountains can focus several climate zones? I think it was in high school I learned this stuff, back when Coe and Eliot glaciers were killing off the mastodons (kidding, I think). Climbing a mountain is like traveling toward the poles, as you get to cooler regions and the trees shrink then disappear. What mountains do over millennia a thunder-cloud can do in three hours! A dry desert heat and a moist sky can produce a cloud that is well below freezing on top (which is often higher than Mt.Everest!). Unlike mountains though, the ice zone can land in the desert for an hour, the cloud moves off, and the ephemeral mountains rebuild off the hot desert again.

the Ides of October storm

It's not a real storm nowadays unless it has a name. The Weather Channel uses Norse and Greek gods, the NWS went with the calendar.

Here's the NWS Portland meteogram for our little spot on the map:

Top: clearly not a cold storm, but typhoon remnants generally look like this. Fairly warm downpours, so little range from high to low and not much space between temperature and dew-point.

Middle: here's the wind setup as it stands on Thursday night. After 4PM Saturday steady winds from the south in the mid-40s mph, and gusts to.. 67?  Wow: that's about 20mph higher than this chart for Portland, so our proximity to the low and our higher hillside location make a difference. In our specific case we're just on the north slope below a high point, so we'll hear limbs cracking on the 800' crest - hopefully none of them will impale our roof or our vehicles! The yard itself will probably feel the swirling wind to either side, but previous south winds have been blocked quite effectively. However: they were Not sixty-mile plus gusts on those occasions!

interesting reading II

Canada's site at theweathernetwork has a great video with images of Songda (once a Super Typhoon!) and its predicted track

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/strong-october-storms-ahead-for-bc-south-coast/72975

They also show the Seattle NWS with this dire comment!

Cliff Mass' blog shows great concern, but the MM5 as of this post was still on GFS track from earlier.

And as of 10AM the GFS has "come around" - so maybe 60/40% now on that southern track?

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
950 AM PDT Thu Oct 13 2016

..the next strong low pressure system will have moisture from former typhoon Songda so that storm should be stronger. The GFS has that low making landfall on the Washington Coast Saturday evening and the GFS track is just right for a genuine windstorm for the interior of Western Washington. It will be interesting to see the 12z ecmwf solution.

fun reading

The NWS discussion has many "interesting" notes today. (They use the word "interesting" often when "dangerous" or "volatile" are equally good choices.)

• First to note is Typhoon Songda - its remnants will reach the USA on Saturday. 
• A quick wound-up low will bring back memories of its big winds as they visit Astoria (ECMWF model) or Victoria (GFS). If you live near Astoria, that's an important distinction!! 
• The words "180-200kt jet" are also in here - that's a huge amount of wind up high that is potentially available for delivery at lower levels, in the 'proper' conditions. 
• Oh yes, they also describe the ECMWF as "sticking to its guns", meaning that its solution has been consistent while others have jumped about. It's hard to pin down such an unstable event.

So: typhoon remnants, really fast jet stream, predicted Low pressure to get winds going, and the most consistently correct model in the world says it will make landfall as close to our home as possible. 

Perhaps those south winds will deliver our firewood this year? Not entirely likely - yet several large trees sit on the 800-foot crest of our hill, and our driveway sits about 30' below and north of that crest. Maybe I'll park the Fiat somewhere else on Saturday..

geek alert!

youtube shot (after 25 seconds)

accuweather wind forecast 10/15, model unknown

weather channel - also going GFS and barely mentioning the risk that ECMWF track suggests!

screen shot: ECMWF is scenario #2. Skill tests always put ECMWF and UKMET at the top, GFS a clear tier lower-  but tropical systems are notoriously challenging to all models esp. with a 160+ jet stream!

October starts wet!

Eight days in and we're about 1½" above the TOTAL amount of rain expected in October! We've had a couple of 1-inch days (and we are doing it again today). The forecast for later in the week still includes several fronts and an atmospheric river slamming into the region - not yet certain where the stream will focus, but someone will get 2+ inches of additional water. Why not us?

Here's the upcoming hit for Wed evening through Friday evening... oof.

preparing for cooler times

It's looking mighty clear (in a cloudy sort of way) that the warm season has ended. October is two days old and we're at 2/3" of rain, with another inch or two coming this week. I may even have heard a rumble of thunder last night with the intense showers!

So Friday was a hasty clean-up day at our Homely House. Many downed branches were put under cover as firewood, and I finally broke out the electric chain-saw on a smaller tree that I brought down over a year ago. It looks like good wood for a fire now, though the bark needed to come off as it was pretty damp in places. Hopefully we can buy some firewood soon but we have enough to get by - it's not really cold yet, just no longer warm.

I had hoped to bring down some larger branches from the maples this year to be ready in a coming winter but that didn't happen. Maybe next spring.

A late-September storm deprived us of our true-eqnionx sunrise, but two mornings later we were rewarded with a fine view! As of yesterday St.Helens is allegedly covered in a few inches of snow - if only we could get enough clearing to admire its new cloak! This one will and a few more will likely be rinsed off before winter's chill finally allows it to hang about for six months, but it's always fun to see those grey peaks lighten up this time of year.