Windy

Today looked like the best day to burn some yard debris, as the east wind was forecast to appear soon after. However the northeast wind developed quickly and strongly compared to forecasts so we shall wait a bit. Considering how hard it is to get much wind here for anything but east-west flow the chart looks impressive - but the direction generally states it was from the east, so some serious swirling was going on. Not ideal for an outdoor fire, regardless of how wet we've been!

Winds are now forecast to be weak on Saturday.. we shall see about that!

My Wettest Days!

After the past few damp days I decided to wander into the virtual NWS archives in Portland. Sure enough, several days of up to 2½ inches have happened there in my lifetime - but nothing in the 3-5 inch category there.

Considering that Thursday was also a top-ten rainfall day (#9 as of now), that's mighty impressive. A year or two ago I was shocked by 10 inches in a single week (November 2015) - now I can add eight-plus inches in a 4-day span to that list of amazing rainfall.

Several interesting points about atmospheric rivers to be seen. Often times the warm front would dump a bunch, move just north of my location then swing south again - so a gap of a day or two between large numbers. Either that or a double river set up from two different dead typhoons?

The tints provide the hint. October 1994 had three events within six days (blue), and our double whammy came on the 19th and 21st this past week. That one was in fact two separate events, so it happens.

Note also the tan events from 1996, which was an amazingly wet year around here. Toss in Nov 11 '95 if you wish.

Another interesting point is that nearly every one of these is a 'recent' event. The earliest are 1960, 1969 and 1973 - then nothing until 1984.

So whatever it may mean.. here it is!

Not something we see often..

An overnight forecast of 2-3 inches. Wow!

Update.. Saturday total rain 4.8", October total including Sunday's half inch is over 10. Not the 20.2" of last year but still far beyond the 'normal' 5.5 inches!

wet week ahead!

The upcoming week has a full load of rainfall! The image shows the total 7-day amount that's currently forecast, and the moisture plume showing on the IR satellite image confirms that someone is going to get very wet. Even four inches is enough to put us positive for October's total amount, so we needn't fear for our well running dry.

The past few days have been quite nice, with temperatures now reaching the 30s - with just under 11 hours of daylight now, that's no surprise. I rebuilt the wood 'shed' with our largest tarp for a roof/wall and the remaining fiberglass from the previous shed for bonus protection on top. If the wind doesn't get out of hand that should do for a while.

Our wood is going faster than I expected, so a refill in December will need to happen. Hopefully by then our income will be reinforced in one of several ways. We still await word on my wife's Social Security payments that were suspended for reasons not entirely clear, but I'm seeking a part-time job to cover that missing income. We'll get through this spell but retirement will be suspended for a while. It would take a while to qualify for SoSec myself, as I removed myself from the pool very early to enter Federal service. A few years of part-timing will reduce our debts substantially.

*updates - 

• 10/19 so far so 'good', as yesterday ended with about 2¼ inches of rain. The weekend promises as least two more inches, so mark up another month of above-average precipitation - we've sure had a lot of those in Oct-May months!
• 10/20 another half-inch, about three more inches now expected beginning early Saturday.
• 10/21 nearly 5 inches, and 3/4 more Sunday! 

quick change as always

Highs in the mid-60s are now called a warm day, and lows are about to fall into the 30s. Nothing new here, it's called October!

We picked up a SportTrac-load of firewood (perhaps 1/2 cord) for the season, and I've finally learned how to heat the house with it: big fire by 8am that becomes coals by noon. The house stays toasty warm until bedtime and the furnace isn't needed (at least not yet).

The firewood is already nicely seasoned and nearly all cut to size - the big axe may not get much use this year!

dry and hot and dry and - oh wait

After a dreadfully dry and decently warm summer, autumn arrived early. We received just under four inches of rain in 3½ days up on the hill-top! Thankfully the home was pretty well prepared: roof was cleaned, gutters emptied and spout-directors reattached before the deluge began. Three straight days of 1+ inches is rather rare around here, most especially in mid-September! A few dry days with morning fog are up next, then we'll see what comes after.

The Eagle Creek fire that has hit many Portland-area residents so hard was weakened considerably by the rainfall, though it's still less than 2/3 contained at this time. Somewhat calm and residual moisture should help to keep it mellow as fire crews get into the hot spots and finish this off. I believe Interstate 84 is still closed for east-bound travel as the danger of slides and large rockfalls will take some serious study to control!

autumn awaits

We dropped below 50° last night, first of many as we shift to cooler weather. Nights have been clear as well as cool; the Milky Way is back after several bouts of smoke in recent weeks.

The most painful of the smoke sources came from the Eagle Creek fire, which east winds swept rapidly down-river. The Willamette valley was smokey for days, and even here we received a dusting of ash and the smell of smoke. The worst day of the bunch was in early September - 95 degrees, smoke and ash, and a funeral to attend.

captured from OregonLive website

The fire did not entirely wipe out the area marked in red, but much of the area suffered damage. Right along the creeks are likely rather lush in many spots, and the Multnomah Falls lodge was saved (as of today - the fire is still burning!). Sparks send the fire west during the strong east winds in early September, then the wind shifted and more recently the eastern edge has pushed eastward. Areas from Shepperds Dell to Herman Creek have been affected - and even a spot fire in Washington caught fire from the hard-blown embers! The Oregon side is too rugged to be a fair fight against fires, as the wind and near-vertical terrain does not allow for reasonable fire lines or any sense of control below the 4000-foot ridgetops. Interstate 84 has been closed for about a week, and the eastbound lanes won't be safe without checking a lot of charred slopes for imminent failure.

looking south from Longview as the east wind blows smoke out of the Gorge

This weekend we expect an inch or so of rain, which will help a great deal if winds don't swirl and lightning doesn't appear to restart the chaos. Hopefully the moisture will be pervasive and persistent, and nature can begin the healing process. Landslides will be the next worry once the fire is out, as the underbrush and roots will no longer hold back any strong runoff. Difficult times.